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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 34

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Baltimore Ravens 19

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 7-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.79 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.73 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model