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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 72

Baltimore Ravens 19 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 11-J.Stout punts 34 yards to IND 38, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.44 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 72, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 30, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model