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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 35

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 7-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.00 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 45, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model