Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 11-J.Stout punts 49 yards to IND 22, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie. PENALTY on IND-20-N.Cross, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model