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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 57

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 11-J.Stout punts 44 yards to IND 13, Center-69-T.Ott. 6-I.McKenzie pushed ob at IND 45 for 32 yards (69-T.Ott).

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.70 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP