Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 81

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Indianapolis Colts 10

(2:00) 11-J.Stout punts 51 yards to IND 30, Center-69-T.Ott. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 46 for 16 yards (80-I.Likely, 5-J.Armour-Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.67 EP
71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 81, worth -4.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model