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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 18 at the 59

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to BAL 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 20 for 7 yards (85-A.Ogletree).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.92 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 59, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model