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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 21

Denver Broncos 20 – Miami Dolphins 70

What Actually Happened

(4:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton [93-D.Hand].

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.37 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 31, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.03 EP