Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 72

Denver Broncos 13 – Miami Dolphins 56

What Actually Happened

(14:04) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to MIA 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 0-B.Berrios to DEN 48 for 38 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell). PENALTY on MIA-41-C.Tindall, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 29.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model