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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 58

Denver Broncos 13 – Miami Dolphins 35

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to MIA 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.62 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 58, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 18, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP