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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 17 at the 40

Denver Broncos 10 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 31 yards to MIA 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 14 for 5 yards (1-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.12 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP