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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 13

Denver Broncos 7 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 16-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.41 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 13, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 23, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model