Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 76

Chicago Bears 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(9:50) 16-T.Gill punts 58 yards to KC 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 12-M.Washington pushed ob at KC 41 for 23 yards (57-J.Sanborn; 53-T.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.63 EP
52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 76, worth -4.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model