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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Chicago Bears
4th & 1 at the 8
Chicago Bears 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 41
What Actually Happened
(:26) (No Huddle) 1-J.Fields up the middle to KC 7 for 1 yard (98-T.Wharton).
The Three Options
GO
+3.43 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.53 EP
- 38% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 8, worth +0.01 EP
KICK
+1.78 EP
- 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT
-0.14 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
