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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 58

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 5-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to CHI 3, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +3.15 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 58, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 18, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP