Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 74

Chicago Bears 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 31

(:47) 16-T.Gill punts 47 yards to KC 27, Center-48-P.Scales. 12-M.Washington to KC 35 for 8 yards (12-V.Jones; 57-J.Sanborn).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.09 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model