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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 53

Chicago Bears 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(8:41) 16-T.Gill punts 43 yards to KC 10, Center-48-P.Scales. 12-M.Washington to KC 12 for 2 yards (31-Ja.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.79 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 53, worth -3.06 EP
KICK -1.75 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model