Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 19 at the 89

Washington Commanders 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(:59) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to BUF 32, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 11-D.Harty to WAS 45 for 23 yards (39-J.Reaves). PENALTY on WAS-51-D.Mayo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 45.

The Three Options

GO -3.18 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.66 EP
73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 89, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model