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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 19 at the 33

Washington Commanders 0 – Buffalo Bills 37

What Actually Happened

(:50) 6-J.Slye 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +3.77 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 33, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model