4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 81

Washington Commanders 0 – Buffalo Bills 30

What Actually Happened

(8:20) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to BUF 36, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -2.93 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 81, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 38, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model