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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Buffalo Bills
4th & 9 at the 18
Buffalo Bills 0 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(9:32) 2-T.Bass 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
The Three Options
GO
+0.91 EP
-
31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.18 EP
- 69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 18, worth -1.01 EP
KICK
+1.40 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
- 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
