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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Buffalo Bills
4th & 16 at the 36
Buffalo Bills 10 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(2:00) 2-T.Bass 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
The Three Options
GO
-0.16 EP
-
25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.47 EP
- 75% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.70 EP
KICK
+0.54 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 69% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
- 31% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT
-0.42 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
