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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 2

Washington Commanders 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short middle to 85-C.Turner.

The Three Options

GO +3.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 2, worth +0.78 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model