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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 18

Detroit Lions 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 36-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.18 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 18, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 28, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT +0.61 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model