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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 59

Detroit Lions 20 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 3-J.Fox punts 51 yards to ATL 8, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.77 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 59, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model