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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 37

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(13:46) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.74 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 37, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model