Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 72

Detroit Lions 13 – Atlanta Falcons 3

(1:58) 3-J.Fox punts 37 yards to ATL 35, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 72, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model