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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 42

Detroit Lions 13 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 3-J.Fox punts 25 yards to ATL 17, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-89-B.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.68 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 42, worth -2.04 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model