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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 28

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 6-Y.Koo 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. DET-79-J.Cominsky was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.41 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 28, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 38, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model