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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 66

Detroit Lions 13 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 3-J.Fox punts 55 yards to ATL 11, Center-47-S.Daly. 21-M.Hughes ran ob at ATL 19 for 8 yards (45-J.Cabinda).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 66, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 24, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP