Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 63

Detroit Lions 13 – Atlanta Falcons 3

(:29) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to ATL 19, Center-47-S.Daly. 21-M.Hughes to ATL 20 for 1 yard (46-J.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.51 EP
63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 63, worth -1.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model