Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 79

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to DET 27, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-K.Raymond to DET 39 for 12 yards (44-T.Andersen). PENALTY on DET-25-W.Harris, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.22 EP
68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 79, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model