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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 6

Detroit Lions 10 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 36-R.Patterson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.00 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 6, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model