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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 71

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 13-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to DET 14, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.08 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 71, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 29, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP