Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 74

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Detroit Lions 10

(9:10) 13-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to DET 27, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.33 EP
62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 74, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model