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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 30

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 6-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.59 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model