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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 25

Washington Commanders 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(:28) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.91 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model