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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 56

Washington Commanders 35 – Denver Broncos 27

What Actually Happened

(:56) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to DEN 13, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +0.61 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -1.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model