Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 69

Denver Broncos 24 – Washington Commanders 28

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to WAS 25, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 31 for 6 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell). DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell was injured during the play. PENALTY on DEN-1-T.Smith, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 31.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.08 EP
66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model