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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 67

Denver Broncos 21 – Washington Commanders 11

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to WAS 23, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 67, worth -2.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 25, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP