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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 4

Washington Commanders 3 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(1:52) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 82-L.Thomas for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-82-L.Thomas was injured during the play. PENALTY on DEN-22-K.Jackson, Disqualification, 1 yard, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.24 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 4, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.26 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.97 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model