Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 74

Washington Commanders 3 – Denver Broncos 21

(8:13) 5-T.Way punts 59 yards to DEN 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 19-M.Mims ran ob at WAS 40 for 45 yards (95-C.Toohill).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.89 EP
64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 74, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model