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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Denver Broncos
4th & 1 at the 22
Denver Broncos 14 – Washington Commanders 3
What Actually Happened
(10:23) 3-R.Wilson right guard to WAS 20 for 2 yards (93-J.Allen).
The Three Options
GO
+2.38 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.41 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -1.31 EP
KICK
+1.13 EP
- 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
- 10% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT
-0.70 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.70 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
