Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 63

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Detroit Lions 7

(1:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to DET 12, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-K.Raymond to DET 12 for no gain (32-Je.Reed).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.39 EP
66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 63, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model