4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 20

Detroit Lions 28 – Seattle Seahawks 31

What Actually Happened

(:03) 36-R.Patterson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +1.52 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 20, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model