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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 55

Detroit Lions 21 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(:32) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep left to 8-J.Reynolds [58-D.Hall].

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.61 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 55, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 16, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model