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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 7

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 5-J.Myers 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 7, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model