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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 59

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(7:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle to SEA 44 for 3 yards (97-A.Hutchinson).

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.05 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 59, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model