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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 68

New York Jets 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 5-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to DAL 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin. PENALTY on DAL-26-D.Bland, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.24 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP