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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 60

Dallas Cowboys 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to NYJ 10, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.35 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 60, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 19, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP